Kirsty Williams: Government must admit scale of fuel poverty to ensure vulnerable get help this winter.

12.00.00am GMT Tue 10th Nov 2009

As the Welsh Government publishes its latest fuel poverty strategy, the Welsh Liberal Democrats are calling on Ministers to admit the scale of the problem in Wales, as winter sets in.

Kirsty Williams, Leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats said:

"We welcome this new strategy as we must urgently tackle fuel poverty and protect our most vulnerable households, particularly during winter months. However, Government is still underplaying the scale of fuel poverty. This strategy says that around 240,000 households were in fuel poverty in 20061 but the figure today is closer to 320,0002. We need assurances that everybody living in fuel poverty, right now, during this winter, will get the help they need."

"This strategy says that an assessment of the number of fuel poor Welsh households in 2008, will be made in 2010. The last meaningful assessment was made in 2004, since when fuel prices have increased by 50-65%, way above the 30% worst case scenario The Welsh Government predicted in 20043. In the long term, fuel prices will continue to rise, and can rise rapidly when the economy grows. This challenge will not go away as demand for fossil fuels increases and supply dwindles. We're calling on the One-Wales Government to establish robust mechanisms for measuring and predicting fuel poverty in real-time."

Ends.

Notes.

1) WAG 2009 Fuel Poverty Strategy, Consultation.

Table 3: Estimated numbers of households in fuel poverty

Year Estimate of total number of households in fuel poverty Estimate of number of vulnerable households in fuel poverty

2004 134,000 115,000

2005 166,000 142,000

2006 240,000 209,000

Source: Fuel Poverty in Wales 2004 - modelled headline fuel poverty statistics for 2005 and 2006

"Estimates of the level of fuel poverty in Wales in 2008 will be published in 2010. The data will help us to understand how improvements in energy efficiency, increases in fuel prices and changes in incomes have impacted on fuel poverty including whether there have been any significant changes in distribution across the population of Wales. We will review our approach when this data is available."

NEA Cymru: "Fuel Poverty is on the rise in Wales as it is across the rest of the UK.  In October 2007, the Welsh Assembly Government published the findings of its Living in Wales survey.  This showed that although fuel poverty had fallen significantly between 1998 and 2004 - from 330,000 to 134,000 households - rising energy prices mean that the number of fuel poor households almost doubled to 240,000- 250,000, between 2004 and 2006. Of these households 209,000 are classed as "vulnerable". Further energy price increases in 2008 mean that we estimate that 320,000 households in Wales are now in fuel poverty."  - see bullet 3 below for further detail.

3) Fuel Poverty in Wales 2004 - modelled headline fuel poverty statistics for 2005 and 2006

"Assuming a linear fit to the 'All Fuels' curve, it is estimated1 that a 10% rise in fuel

prices implies a rise of 4% in the proportion of households in fuel poverty.

That is, if fuel prices were to rise by 10%, the proportion of households in fuel poverty

would increase from 11% to 15% from the 2004 'base' position; similarly, if fuel prices

were to rise by 20%, the proportion of households in fuel poverty would increase from

11% to 19% from the 2004 'base' position. For all households this represents a rise

of 48,000 households for every 10% rise in fuel prices and for vulnerable households

only this represents a rise of 40,000 households for every 10% rise in fuel prices.

We regard this to be a conservative approach (i.e. producing a 'worst-case' estimate)

in that it is unlikely that prices for all fuels would increase by the same percentage

amount at the same time. However, it is likely that if one fuel increases in price others

will follow the same general trend. It was not possible to produce a guide figure for a

1% rise in fuel prices, as is done for England, due to the smaller sample size in the

2004 Living in Wales base data. The results presented here could be used to infer

the change in fuel poverty for a 5% fuel price rise, however a change in fuel prices of

less than this results in a change in the number of fuel poor households that is below

the bounds of the sampling error for this data."

1 The relationship derived is an approximation and is dependent on a linear correlation

between rising fuel prices and numbers of households in fuel poverty.

UK Energy Price Trends (ONS)

    Coal Fuel Petrol Fuel, light

    & smoke-     Heating and and petrol

    less fuels Gas Electricity oils(4) light oil and oil(5)

          Current fuel price index numbers 1990=100      

2005   167.1 143.1 124.7 188.6 137.8 213.4 169.8

2006   179.6 188.7 151.7 213.5 171.8 225.1 193.6

2007   192.5 203.3 163.9 215.3 184.0 231.2 202.9

2008   229.2 243.4 189.4 310.8 218.9 266.0 236.3

% Change              

2004-2008 +40.2 +58.4 +46.8 +76.1 +53.0 +30.2 +41.0

4) Wales Fuel Poverty Coalition

The new Wales Fuel Poverty Coalition is led by Consumer Focus Wales and NEA Cymru and includes a dozen major campaign groups.

The Charter calls for:

A detailed action plan setting out how and when fuel poverty will be eradicated in Wales;

Support for all fuel poor households to stay warm - until fuel poverty is eradicated;

A co-ordinated and united approach across the statutory sector (at UK and Wales level) that involves partners from the private, voluntary and community sectors in Wales.

http://www.consumerfocus.org.uk/en/content/cms/News___Press_speech/New_coalition_seeks_/New_coalition_seeks_.aspx